Cobb economy in 2012 will look awfully familiar, local economist says

When it comes to the Cobb County and metro Atlanta economies, next year is poised to look a lot like this year. That’s the forecast of Don Sabbarese, an economist who teaches at Kennesaw State University and is the director of the school’s Econometric Center.

“What we saw in 2011 is what we’ll see in 2012: slow growth,” he said.

According to the most recent statistics available on the Georgia Department of Labor’s website, Cobb County had an unemployment rate of 9.1 percent in October 2011. The county’s rate declined from 9.4 percent in September and 9.6 percent in October 2010.

Cobb is performing better than some other jurisdictions in the state. For example, the unemployment rate for the 10-county area served by the Atlanta Regional Commission - which includes Cobb – had a 9.8 percent unemployment rate. The rates for the state of Georgia and the United States were 10.2 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

Cobb County and the metro Atlanta area have experienced some job growth recently in the education and health service sectors, as well as the manufacturing, professional business services and hospitality segments, Sabbarese noted. In fact, the Georgia Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a measure of the state’s manufacturing activity that is calculated by the Econometric Center, reached 52.4 percent in November, its first increase in three months. A number above 50 indicates that manufacturing activity is increasing, while a number below 50 indicates it is decreasing.

It’s All About Real Estate

Sabbarese notes that the construction sector continues to lack job growth and says that until the real estate market improves and construction starts pick back up, the economies in Cobb and the rest of Georgia won’t return to their pre-recession job levels.

And while the job loss in the government sector may slow, local governments will continue to be burdened by the housing crisis, as depressed housing prices will keep tax revenues down.

The “construction and financial [sectors] are going to struggle,” he said. “It’s going to take a long time to improve.”